Wager simulation

import random

# Define parameters

starting_bet = 0.03

multiplier = 6.6

win_chance = 0.15 # 15%

win_increase = 1.0 # 100% increase per win

target_amount = 10.0

# Function to simulate a single game

def simulate_game():

    bet = starting_bet

    consecutive_wins = 0

    while bet < target_amount:

        win = random.random() < win_chance

        if win:

            consecutive_wins += 1

            bet *= multiplier * win_increase

        else:

            consecutive_wins = 0

            bet = starting_bet

    return consecutive_wins

# Run simulations and collect results

num_simulations = 1000 # Increase for more accurate results

win_streaks = []

for _ in range(num_simulations):

    win_streaks.append(simulate_game())

# Analyze and print results

average_win_streak = sum(win_streaks) / len(win_streaks)

print(f"Average win streak needed: {average_win_streak:.2f}")

# Calculate and print success rates for different win streak lengths

success_rates = {}

for i in range(1, max(win_streaks) + 1):

    success_rates[i] = sum(w >= i for w in win_streaks) / len(win_streaks)

print("--- Success Rates by Win Streak Length ---")

for streak, rate in success_rates.items():

    print(f"{streak} wins: {rate:.2%}")